“We can expect an estimated increase in stage 3 credits, mainly UTPs, of between 90 and 100 billion euro in the next 2-3 years in Italy.” Prelios Group CEO Riccardo Serrini was in conversation with Generalfinance S.p.A. CEO “We can expect an estimated increase in stage 3 credits, mainly UTPs, of between 90 and 100 billion euro in the next 2-3 years in Italy.” during the UTP Summit organized by Il Sole 24 Ore in Milan on June 22. Moderated by Marco Ferrando, financial editor at Italy's main business and financial daily, the discussion looked at “The role of UTPs, a 100 billion euro market, in Italy's post-pandemic economic recovery.”
For Riccardo Serrini, “the 90-100 billion estimate in 2-3 years is based on the solid correlation of Italian GDP with total bank loans and the subsequent default rate, which is obviously inversely correlated. We simply apply the trends shown in the time series, corroborated by the growth peak in stage 2 loans, which have increased by 70% in the last two years and represent approximately 14% of total performing loans.”
Serrini went on to emphasize that “at the same time the banks have actively and effectively continued with their deleveraging plans, which have cut stage 3 loans to an all-time low, with a reduction, again in the last two years, of more than 30%, by taking full advantage of public NPL securitizations using the GACS guarantee and high liquidity from UTP portfolio sales.” According to the Prelios Group CEO, “to meet the challenge of the next few years, people-technology-data, in that order, are the priorities for our Group, which now has more than 41 billion euro of assets under management. It is extremely important to respond to the corporate crisis in the early stages, in the high-risk phase in the performing world, in order to be proactive and effective in putting companies experiencing temporary difficulties back in the performing category. Employing state-of-the-art technology that uses machine learning processes and data is the key to have management tools that support the asset manager’s activities. The Prelios Group invests nearly 20 million euro a year in technology and innovation, as well as in the vital training and selection of its asset managers, who are its main driver and resource.”
At this link you can watch Serrini’s and Gianolli’s discussion at the UTP summit (in Italian):